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(80%)","points":[["2026-10-25",30.0],["2026-11-01",30.8],["2026-11-08",31.5],["2026-11-15",32.1],["2026-11-22",32.5]],"style":"dashed","band":[["2026-10-25",30.0,30.0],["2026-11-01",20.1,49.8],["2026-11-08",16.5,60.5],["2026-11-15",15.8,58.4],["2026-11-22",14.1,55.9]],"color":2}],"x_kind":"week","step":false,"y_zero":true,"reference":[],"marker":["2026-10-25","hoje"],"badge":{"status":"good","label":"Alerta verde"}}]},{"type":"bar","id":"incidencia","title":"Incidência nas últimas 4 semanas","subtitle":"Casos estimados por 100 mil habitantes","format":{"kind":"number","decimals":1,"compact":false,"grouping":true},"items":[{"label":"Goiânia","value":167.8,"highlight":true},{"label":"Belo Horizonte","value":68.9,"highlight":false},{"label":"São Paulo","value":42.1,"highlight":false},{"label":"Brasília","value":35.7,"highlight":false},{"label":"Rio de Janeiro","value":16.4,"highlight":false},{"label":"Curitiba","value":6.4,"highlight":false}],"reference":[],"highlight_label":"Maior incidência"}],"insights":["Somando as 6 capitais, foram estimados 11.412 casos nas últimas 4 semanas, +19,1% em relação às 4 semanas anteriores.","Belo Horizonte está em alerta laranja (transmissão sustentada).","Maior aceleração recente: Curitiba, com +65% em 4 semanas.","No backtest das últimas 26 semanas, o modelo errou em média 14% menos do que a previsão ingênua."],"highlights":[],"methodology":["Casos estimados: estimativa do InfoDengue que corrige o atraso de notificação das últimas semanas. As semanas mais recentes podem ser revisadas.","Previsão: suavização exponencial de Holt com tendência amortecida, ajustada no logaritmo dos casos. Parâmetros escolhidos por mínimo erro de um passo.","Validação: origem móvel nas últimas 26 semanas (treina só com o passado de cada origem), comparando o erro absoluto médio com a previsão ingênua (repetir a última semana). O intervalo de 80% vem dos erros observados nesse backtest.","Incidência: casos estimados nas últimas 4 semanas por 100 mil habitantes."],"model":{"name":"Holt com tendência amortecida (escala log)","target":"Casos estimados por semana epidemiológica, por capital","horizon":"1 a 4 semanas","baseline":"Ingênuo: repetir a última semana observada","mae":107.2,"mae_baseline":125.1,"skill":0.143,"notes":"Erro absoluto médio por capital e semana prevista, origem móvel nas últimas 26 semanas."},"columns":[{"name":"semana_inicio","description":"Início da semana epidemiológica (AAAA-MM-DD)"},{"name":"cidade","description":"Capital"},{"name":"uf","description":"Unidade da federação"},{"name":"geocodigo","description":"Código IBGE do município"},{"name":"tipo","description":"'observado' ou 'previsao'"},{"name":"casos_notificados","description":"Casos notificados até a coleta"},{"name":"casos_estimados","description":"Casos estimados (nowcast) ou previstos"},{"name":"limite_inferior","description":"Limite inferior (IC do nowcast ou intervalo de 80% da previsão)"},{"name":"limite_superior","description":"Limite superior"},{"name":"nivel_alerta","description":"1 verde, 2 amarelo, 3 laranja, 4 vermelho"},{"name":"rt","description":"Número reprodutivo estimado"}],"rows":1536}